What’s in Store for the European Cannabis Industry in 2025? (Part 1)

Written by Ben Stevens and Sarah Sinclair. 

 

2024 has been a dramatic year for the global cannabis industry, seeing both historic steps forward and concerning regressions in both attitudes and policy. 

It was a year dominated by elections, with around half of the world’s population eligible to vote in national elections across 70 countries. 

Even for many of the most cannabis-progressive countries, this has meant a significant shift in political positioning and has driven a clampdown or even regression in policy in many countries. 

Despite the decimation of incumbent parties, seeing over 80% experience a reduction in vote share this year, there are reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for cannabis in the coming year.

We spoke to leading cannabis business owners, stakeholders, and experts from across the world to shed some light on what we can expect for the cannabis industry in 2025.

Prohibition Partners CEO, Stephen Murphy, believes the cannabis industry is set to accelerate over the coming 12 months.

“In 2025, the cannabis industry will accelerate its shift toward automation across decision-making, operations, marketing, and finance,” he said.

“As more businesses achieve cashflow-positive positions, we’ll see the emergence of new suitors and the willingness to take essential risks that can drive significant policy change.

“This year will also mark a pivotal moment where the focus extends beyond cannabis itself to its deeper integration into healthcare. The major growth opportunity lies in positioning cannabis medicine as a core component of global healthcare systems—a step that will redefine the industry’s trajectory.”

Prohibition Partners’ Senior Analyst Lawrence Purkiss, who will dive deeper into expectations for 2025 in the upcoming Global Cannabis Report: 5th Edition, said: The cannabis industry continues to progress, though not without challenges. Overly bureaucratic approaches in some nations continue to hamper market growth.

“Achieving a balance between accessibility, quality control, and regulation is critical to building a sustainable and socially beneficial cannabis framework. As nations learn from one another’s successes and mistakes, emerging patterns in the development of medical and adult-use cannabis markets are becoming evident.

“There is significant potential for the global industry yet to be realised, however, and given the constant direction of progress over the past number of years, this potential seems sure to be realised eventually, by one path or another.”

 

This year saw the semi-legalisation of adult-use cannabis in Germany, enabling citizens to consume cannabis in designated areas without fear of prosecution, possess cannabis for personal use, and grow their own cannabis at home.

As cannabis lawyer Kai Freidrich-Neirmann explained, 2024 was an ‘historic year for German cannabis policy,’ with its widespread decriminalisation representing a ‘real paradigm shift’ for the country.

The passage of CanG in April was followed by the legalisation of cannabis social and private cultivation clubs months later, and just this month legislation enabling Swiss-style adult-use model projects was passed.

In light of these landmark policy advancements, Cannavigia, which has been actively involved in both Switzerland and Germany’s recreational pilot projects to help stakeholders ensure compliance, said: “While commercial sales remain restricted, these changes highlight the growing momentum toward broader legalisation in Europe.”

Looking ahead, the company believes that the ‘expansion of recreational pilot programs in Germany will provide valuable insights into consumer behaviour and regulatory frameworks, paving the way for broader legalisation efforts’.

Philipp Hagenbach, Cannavigia’s Co-Founder and COO, added: “Our work with pilot projects across Europe has provided invaluable insights into consumer behaviour and regulatory needs. These projects are crucial stepping stones towards broader legalisation and market acceptance.”

Tobias Viegener, Head of Marketing, continued: “With developments like Germany’s ‘Legalisation Light,’ it’s not just about providing solutions but also about creating spaces where stakeholders can connect and learn from one another. Through events and community engagement efforts this year, we’ve seen how collaboration drives innovation.”

With this in mind, Neirmann emphasises that it will be crucial to ‘consolidate and secure these successes’ in the coming year, particularly in light of an upcoming election.

“The case law, which wants to interpret the new regulations as strictly as possible, must be counteracted. The cultivation associations must be supported so that this option can also become a successful model and not just remain an isolated phenomenon.

“Many more steps are needed to combat the illegal market, right up to a final commercial route for the distribution of recreational cannabis.”

Perhaps more impactful than Germany’s liberalisation of recreational cannabis regulation was the removal of cannabis from the list of narcotics.

This drove a staggering growth in Germany’s medical cannabis sector, having far-reaching implications for cannabis businesses throughout Europe and even across the Atlantic.

For companies like Grünhorn, the largest online pharmacy for medical cannabis in Germany, this led to a ‘transformative year,’ forcing it to ‘adapt quickly to the new regulations.’

“While most of the planned cultivation associations have stalled halfway, and the second pillar of legalization—planned cannabis retail outlets—remains delayed, cannabis pharmacies like Grünhorn redeeming medical cannabis prescriptions from doctors or teleclinics have so far been the only fully functional solution,” Grünhorn explained.

Its CEO, Stefan Fritsch, continued: “We’ve seen firsthand how removing cannabis from the BtMG has enhanced the quality of life for chronically ill patients by simplifying access to their medications.”

The company also highlighted further changes to the German medical cannabis system, which streamlined the process by which patients can have their prescriptions reimbursed through health insurance and significantly expanded the number of doctors able to prescribe.

“The changes have improved patient care in general, enabling faster access to treatments for conditions like chronic pain, endometriosis, and insomnia. The decriminalisation and de-stigmatisation of cannabis therapies also mean that patients no longer feel like they are engaging in illegal activities, fostering a safer and more inclusive healthcare environment,” Frisch added.

He warns, however, against returning to failed prohibition policies with the incoming of a new government, which is now likely to be led by parties that have proposed rollbacks of reforms.

Niermann echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the medical market would likely ‘have to consolidate after it literally exploded following the removal of the narcotics law’.

He continued: “In the area of tension between marketing and legal requirements, in terms of quality, medical requirements, and advertising, it will be important for the industry to act in a legally compliant manner.”

 

You can read Part 2 here.