Florida’s Cannabis Market Is Crumbling

Each week, Florida’s Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU), which is part of the state’s Department of Health, releases data on the state’s medical cannabis program, including an active patient count, a qualified physician count, new dispensary approvals and an update for each operator. That data includes the number of dispensaries and the unit sales each week. This is the twelth New Cannabis Ventures monthly update on the Florida medical cannabis market. We also published a newsletter about the state in May 2024, suggesting that readers be careful with Florida. This article is based upon the update that was provided on Friday by the state for the week ending 07/10. Readers who are interested in the data going forward can visit the OMMU update page.

Patient Growth Has Slowed

We last updated on the Florida market in May, and the annual growth in patient count had fallen to 3.4% after having been 8.4% in late May a year ago.  The rate of growth had picked up a bit from March, and it ticked up again this past week ending 7/10 to 4.0%. It has come down a lot:

While the number of patients is still increasing, the growth is very low and down substantially from just a few years ago. 920K patients represent 4% of the state’s population. The number of patients was declining ahead of the potential adult-use legalization but has increased slightly recently to a new high:

The year ended with about 895K patients, and the growth since then has been 2.7%. This works out to annualized growth of 5.3%, which is above the 3.5% growth in 2024 but well below the 11.0% growth in 2023.

Some program improvements over the years have helped excite Florida residents about the medical cannabis program, which now has smokable flower and edibles. Then, the post-pandemic population boom aided patient growth. There has been an increase in dispensaries to 726 from 657 a year ago. This is an increase of 10.5%, which is much faster than the medical cannabis patient growth has been at 4.0% since then.

Unit Growth Remains Strong

In the most recent week, sales of medical cannabis product units with THC increased by 17.9% from a year ago. Smokeable flower units expanded 20.7% from the week ending 07/11/24. Unit volume growths remain higher than the revenue gain and the patient gain. There are more stores, and unit volume is growing.

We shared that Florida revenue was up only 1.4% from a year earlier in April 2024 by the estimate of BDSA. This was a record low at the time. Florida’s growth picked up a bit afterwards, but in March, it fell 0.5%, the first annual decline ever. In April, it fell further, declining 2.7% from a year earlier.  In May, it fell 0.5% again, its third consecutive decline. In June, it increased, but the growth was only 0.7%. Patient growth and dispensary growth have led to unit growth, but the total sales were down in Q2.

Florida MSOs Are Weak

We warned readers on May 17, 2024 regarding the MSOs that are big in Florida, as investors seemed overly optimistic. The entire cannabis market has cratered since then, and the entire group of MSOs is sharply lower, especially after the defeat of the adult-use ballot initiative in November. All four leaders in Florida have declined substantially though 07/14/25:

The overall sector, as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, currently at 5.61, has declined by 48.4% since then as of 07/14, and the NCV American Cannabis Operator Index, which currently has 7 members and closed at 7.90, has dropped 61.9%. All of the Florida 4 have dropped by more than both of them. MSOS, which has Curaleaf and Trulieve at 37.8% of the ETF currently, has dropped 71.0% since 5/16/24. Planet 13, which did an acquisition that made them a large player in Florida, has declined by 67.8%, which is better than all but one of the leaders.

Investors were disappointed that Florida voters did not pass the adult-use legalization ballot initiative, and they likely will not be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and  becoming more competitive. Investors should remain careful in our view with the big Florida operators. Though they have fallen substantially, they could fall more as the market deteriorates.