A Frightening Florida Medical Cannabis Market
- The Florida medical cannabis market is declining, with February 2024 sales down 0.4% year-over-year and patient growth slowing to just 3.4% annually.
- There is increasing competition due to a 4.7% annual increase in dispensaries, with four major companies controlling over half of the market and significant sales concentration.
- While cannabis product volumes are growing, revenue growth is lagging, suggesting pricing pressure in the market, particularly impacting major operators like Trulieve.
- Adult-use cannabis legalization failure in 2024 caused stock price declines for large Florida operators, though potential federal policy changes and future legalization efforts could improve market conditions.
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Friends,
In May 2024, I warned readers about the Florida cannabis sector. There have been many follow-ups, the last of which was in early January, and it pointed to the fact that Florida’s medical cannabis market is declining. Two months later, things are looking nasty there as the mature market becomes more competitive.
Each month, we share the BDSA data, and Florida is one of the markets they provide monthly sales estimates. Florida does a fantastic job sharing data weekly on unit volumes, but it does not provide revenue data.
BDSA estimates that February Florida cannabis sales totaled $126.1 million, which was down 0.4% from a year ago. In January, sales fell 4.1% from a year earlier, and 2025 sales rose just 2.9% after having increased 20.9% in 2024.
Florida gives a lot of data that allows a good understanding of trends in the state. First, they provide the number of patients, which, according to the 2/27 report were at 933K. Growth has been slowing:
The growth over the past year has been 3.4%, and it has increased just 0.4% over the past three months. In 2025, the patient growth was 3.9%, and in 2024 it was 3.3% after growing 11% in 2023. The medical cannabis industry in the state is maturing, and the current number of patients is almost 4% of the overall population.
Florida shares the total number of stores (742 currently), which is up 4.7% over the past year. There was a big increase in 2024 ahead of election that could have legalized cannabis for adult-use, with the store-count surging 14%. The increase in stores has resulted in more competition.
The state shares volumes, and the two biggest parts of it are “medical marijuana” in mg for THC products and “marijuana in a form for smoking” in ounces. Last week, medical cannabis products had sales growth of 12.6%, while smokable cannabis grew 11.4%. This growth was a lot higher than the revenue growth that BDSA projects, and this suggests that pricing is under pressure.
Florida also breaks down unit sales by licensed operator and shares how many dispensing locations each operates. From this data, it can be seen how concentrated the state is, with 51.2% of the dispensaries in this vertically-integrated state owned by just four companies, including Trulieve, Verano (MÜV ), Curaleaf and Ayr Wellness (which bought Liberty Health). These four companies sold 56% of the medical cannabis products last week and 61% of the smokable cannabis. Interestingly, Trulieve, which operates almost twice as many stores as the second largest, Verano, has been seeing its medical cannabis volumes decline from a year ago.
When voters failed to approve adult-use cannabis in 2024, falling short of the 60% affirmative votes necessary, these large Florida operators saw their stocks crash. It has been hardest for Ayr Wellness, but they have all come down a lot:
It is still not known if Florida voters will be voting again this year, but things could improve if adult-use legalization takes place. Also, the federal prohibition of THC from hemp could boost demand near the end of this year when it is implemented. With that said, Florida’s medical cannabis market appears to be struggling. Trulieve is very large in the state and has substantial exposure to it relative to other states. Analysts are projecting that Trulieve 2026 revenue will decline by 1% after falling by less than 1% in 2025. More importantly, they project adjusted EBITDA in 2026 will decline 6%.
Sincerely,
Alan
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published this past 2 weeks:
Exclusives
Cannabis Sales Remained Weak in February
Cannabis Stocks Held Steady
Financial Reports
Cresco Labs Saw Revenue Shrink Again
Curaleaf Q4 Revenue Grows 2%
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