Whitney Economics Forecasts U.S. Legal Marijuana Sales to Rebound in 2026 After Slight Decline in 2025, Grow 43% by 2030

U.S. legal marijuana sales are projected to resume growth in 2026 after what Whitney Economics says was the first annual revenue decline in the history of the regulated market. According to a new forecast released today by Whitney Economics, total U.S. legal marijuana revenue is expected to reach $30.5 billion in 2026, up 4.9% from 2025. The forecast then projects continued growth in the years ahead, with revenues reaching $33.0 billion in 2027, $35.1 billion in 2028, $39.0 billion in 2029 and $43.3 billion in 2030. The firm says 2025 revenue is expected to total $29.1 billion, down from $30.1 billion in 2024.

Whitney Economics founder and Chief Economist Beau Whitney said the downturn in 2025 “would have been worse nationally had it not been for significant growth in New York and Ohio,” where expanded retail access helped offset broader pressure on the market. Even so, he said “supply saturation induced pricing compression and reduced overall revenues in the U.S.,” even as unit volumes and legal participation rates remained strong.

The company says its new outlook reflects a significant change in how it models the marijuana market. Whitney said the firm’s forecast accuracy “has always been in the mid-to-high 90%,” but after that dipped to 85% in 2025, “we knew we needed to update our models.” He said “accounting for pricing compression was a major part of this adjustment.”

That shift is central to the report’s broader argument: the marijuana market is maturing, and the era of rapid growth is giving way to something more restrained. Whitney said consumer behavior has changed considerably since the end of the COVID-19 era, when people tended to spend about the same amount each month. But in 2023 and 2024, those patterns began to change. “During a period of uncertainty and higher inflation, consumers are no longer adding to their basket; instead, they are buying only what they need and applying any savings to other non-cannabis related purchases,” Whitney said. “As a result of this shift, for the first time, pricing compression has become a major variable in the cannabis forecasting equation.”

The report says that shift, combined with supply saturation, has made price deflation one of the most important forces shaping the industry. For years, rapid growth in states such as Washington and Colorado helped mask falling prices, as new consumers entering the legal market kept total revenues climbing. But that dynamic is changing. “We are approaching the point where growth rates of legal participation are slowing while price declines have accelerated,” Whitney said. “As a result, pricing compression will play a major, increasing role in the value of the market moving forward. This is a sign of market maturity.”

A second chart released with the forecast underscores how broad that pressure has become at the state level. Whitney Economics says 24 states are projected to post marijuana revenue declines in 2025, while just 15 are expected to see increases.

Whitney said states will need to keep these trends in mind when projecting future marijuana tax collections. He warned that states “can no longer expect to simply increase taxes to make up for lost revenues because those increases will lower demand,” adding that lawmakers and regulators will need to find ways to keep consumers in the legal marketplace.

Whitney also suggested that could eventually mean rethinking the standard dispensary-only model. “Perhaps this will involve moving away from the marijuana dispensary model and open up sales via other distribution channels such as grocery stores and big-box retailers,” he said. “The U.S. market is at a crossroads, where the market is normalizing and no longer experiencing exponential growth. Single-digit growth will become the norm moving forward.”