The States Most Likely to Legalize Recreational Cannabis in 2027 and 2028

With nearly half the country now allowing recreational marijuana, attention is increasingly shifting toward the states most likely to join the list during the next two years.

Some states have governors actively calling for legalization, while others have lawmakers repeatedly introducing proposals that have fallen only a few votes short. Where legislative approval remains unlikely, ballot initiatives could provide another path in 2028, particularly in Florida and South Dakota, where legalization measures have previously reached voters.

With that in mind, below are the states most likely to legalize adult-use cannabis in 2027 or 2028.

Governor Josh Shapiro (D) has included legalization in every annual budget proposal since taking office. The Pennsylvania House approved an adult-use marijuana bill in 2025, although the measure’s state-operated retail model was rejected by the Republican-controlled Senate.

State Senators Sharif Street (D) and Dan Laughlin (R) have also developed a bipartisan legalization proposal, demonstrating at least some support within both parties. The continued legalization debate increasingly centers on how the market should operate rather than whether marijuana should remain prohibited.

The November 2026 gubernatorial and legislative elections could determine whether Pennsylvania finally crosses the finish line. Shapiro supports legalization, while Republican gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity has said she would veto it. Pennsylvania is surrounded almost entirely by states with legal recreational marijuana, adding economic and political pressure for lawmakers to act.

Governor Josh Green (D) has said he would sign a recreational marijuana bill if one reaches his desk. Comprehensive legislation advanced through the full Senate and multiple House committees in 2025 before being abruptly blocked by the House Finance Committee chairman.

Lawmakers returned in 2026 with narrower proposals, including legislation allowing limited possession without establishing a commercial market. Although those efforts fell short, they kept the issue active and demonstrated that some legislators may be willing to accept legalization incrementally.

Hawaii remains the only state with a Democratic trifecta that has not legalized recreational marijuana. A leadership change, revised regulatory structure or voter referral could give supporters a viable path during the 2027 or 2028 legislative sessions.

New Hampshire is the only state in New England that continues to prohibit recreational marijuana, despite legalization receiving strong support from both voters and members of the state House.

In January 2026, the House voted 208 to 135 to approve House Bill 186, which would have legalized possession and established a regulated commercial market. The Republican-controlled Senate later tabled the proposal in a 15 to 9 vote.

Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) remains opposed to recreational legalization, creating another significant barrier. However, New Hampshire governors serve two-year terms, meaning the November 2026 election could quickly change the state’s political landscape.

An April 2025 University of New Hampshire poll found that 70% of residents supported legalization, including majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents. Continued regional pressure, strong public support and repeated House approval make New Hampshire a serious candidate if the governorship or Senate becomes more favorable following the election.

Florida voters came relatively close to legalizing recreational marijuana in 2024, with Amendment 3 receiving 55.9% support. However, constitutional amendments in Florida require at least 60% approval.

Smart & Safe Florida subsequently attempted to place a revised initiative on the 2026 ballot. The campaign failed to qualify after state officials invalidated more than 70,000 petition signatures and the Florida Supreme Court declined to intervene. Officials said the campaign ultimately finished roughly 100,000 signatures short of the required total, although organizers disputed the state’s calculations.

As of July 2026, Smart & Safe Florida has not said whether it intends to launch another campaign. A 2028 effort would need to begin collecting signatures again because previously gathered petitions cannot be carried into the next election cycle.

Still, the campaign has already demonstrated that legalization can receive a majority of the vote in Florida. Its experience, donor network and organizational infrastructure would position it well for another attempt in 2028.

North Carolina has traditionally been considered one of the more difficult states for marijuana reform, but recent actions by Gov. Josh Stein (D) have created a possible path forward.

In 2025, Stein established an advisory council to develop recommendations for regulating cannabis products, including the possibility of creating a legal adult-use market. The council approved an interim report in April 2026, with Stein saying North Carolina should establish a “safe, legal, well-regulated market for adults.”

Legalization legislation has also been introduced in the General Assembly, although Republican legislative leaders have shown little interest in advancing it. Any proposal would likely require bipartisan support or a shift in legislative control.

North Carolina already has adult-use marijuana sales on Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians land, while intoxicating hemp products remain widely available throughout the state. Those circumstances, combined with Stein’s support and polling showing majority approval, could increase pressure for broader regulation in 2027 or 2028.

Wisconsin remains surrounded by states that have legalized either recreational or medical marijuana, but Republican legislative leaders have repeatedly blocked proposals from receiving hearings or votes.

Democratic lawmakers introduced Senate Bill 1045 in 2026 to legalize recreational and medical marijuana, regulate commercial sales and provide a process for clearing certain previous convictions. The bill received no Republican cosponsors and did not advance before lawmakers adjourned.

Polling has consistently found majority support for legalization among Wisconsin voters. Gov. Tony Evers (D) also supports the policy, although he is not seeking reelection in 2026.

The open gubernatorial race and legislative elections could significantly change the outlook. If Democrats gain enough seats to force negotiations or obtain control of either chamber, legalization could become a major issue during the 2027 legislative session. Without a substantial political shift, however, Republican leadership is likely to continue blocking recreational marijuana proposals.

North Dakota voters rejected recreational marijuana legalization in 2024, but the result was close enough to leave open the possibility of another campaign.

Measure 5 received approximately 47.5% support, falling fewer than six percentage points short of approval. The proposal would have legalized possession, home cultivation and licensed commercial sales for adults 21 and older.

North Dakota voters also rejected legalization initiatives in 2018 and 2022. However, the 2024 campaign successfully collected enough signatures to qualify and performed better than some previous efforts.

A revised initiative emphasizing regulation, tax revenue and limits on public consumption could potentially close the remaining gap in 2028. North Dakota’s relatively low signature requirement makes another attempt possible, although repeated defeats indicate supporters will need a stronger campaign and significantly more funding.

South Dakota voters already approved recreational marijuana once, passing Amendment A with 54.2% support in 2020. The state Supreme Court later struck down the amendment following a legal challenge initiated by officials working under then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R).

Legalization advocates returned with separate initiatives in 2022 and 2024, but voters rejected both. The back-to-back defeats suggest support has weakened since 2020, possibly because of campaign fatigue, lower turnout and concerns about how later proposals were structured.

Even so, the original 2020 victory demonstrates that a majority of South Dakota voters can support legalization. The state also has an established medical marijuana system, providing voters with experience regulating legal cannabis businesses.

A carefully drafted 2028 initiative with substantial funding and a complete commercial framework could be competitive, although recent election results place South Dakota below several other initiative states.

Arkansas rounds out the list largely because it has both an established medical marijuana market and a constitutional initiative process that allows legalization supporters to bypass the legislature.

Voters rejected a recreational marijuana initiative in 2022, with the proposal receiving approximately 44% support. The measure faced opposition from both prohibitionist groups and some legalization advocates who objected to its regulatory structure.

In 2024, organizers collected enough signatures for a medical marijuana expansion amendment, but votes were not counted following disputes over paperwork and the measure’s ballot language. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) has also consistently opposed efforts to expand the state’s marijuana laws.

Arkansas is therefore a considerable long shot. However, a new coalition could potentially return in 2028 with a more broadly supported proposal, clearer ballot language and provisions addressing concerns about competition, licensing and expungement.

Tennessee lawmakers have repeatedly introduced marijuana legalization proposals, although none have come close to overcoming opposition from the Republican-controlled legislature.

State Senator Heidi Campbell (D) and State Representative Aftyn Behn (D) introduced the “Pot for Potholes” proposal, which would legalize marijuana for adults 21 and older and impose a 15% tax to fund road and bridge projects. Campbell has indicated that she intends to continue pursuing the proposal.

Public opinion appears considerably more supportive than the legislature. A Vanderbilt University poll conducted in 2024 found that 63% of Tennessee voters supported recreational marijuana legalization. Tennessee does not allow citizen-initiated statewide ballot measures, meaning legalization would need to come through lawmakers. That makes passage by 2028 unlikely without a significant political shift, but continued proposals and strong public support give the state a reason to be included.