The 6 States Most Likely to Become the 25th to Legalize Recreational Marijuana

Twenty-four states have legalized recreational marijuana, leaving the country one state short of the symbolic halfway point.

The race to become #25 remains wide open. Several states have governors who support legalization but legislatures that continue to block it. Others have demonstrated majority support at the ballot box but face procedural, political or financial barriers to organizing another campaign.

The November 2026 elections could also significantly rearrange the list. Gubernatorial contests and legislative races in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Florida and Hawaii may determine whether legalization advances in 2027 or remains stalled until at least 2028.

Below are the states currently best positioned to become the 25th to legalize recreational marijuana.

Hawaii may have the clearest political foundation for legalization, even though repeated proposals have stalled before reaching Hawaii Governor Josh Green.

Green has said he would sign an adult-use marijuana bill, and Democrats hold overwhelming control of both legislative chambers. Comprehensive legislation passed the Senate and several House committees in 2025 before being blocked in the House Finance Committee.

A narrower 2026 proposal would have legalized certain low-THC marijuana products for adults, but it also failed to advance before a legislative deadline.

The 2026 election could remove or weaken some of the legislative opposition that has prevented legalization from receiving a final vote. Every House seat and half of the Senate will be on the ballot, making the election particularly important for supporters.

Unlike most states on this list, Hawaii does not need a major partisan shift. It may require only a change in legislative leadership, committee membership or the structure of the legalization proposal.

Pennsylvania has come closer to legislative approval than almost any other state that still prohibits recreational marijuana.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has included legalization in each of his annual budget proposals since taking office. In 2025, the House approved an adult-use marijuana bill for the first time in state history, although the Republican-controlled Senate rejected its state-operated retail model.

Republican State Senator Dan Laughlin and Democratic State Senator Sharif Street have supported a separate approach built around privately operated and state-regulated businesses. Laughlin’s Senate Bill 120 remained in committee during 2026, although lawmakers filed an effort in June to force further consideration.

The November election could decide whether the state moves forward. Shapiro continues to support legalization, while Republican challenger Stacy Garrity has said she would veto an adult-use bill.

Pennsylvania is also nearly surrounded by states with legal recreational markets. Residents can purchase marijuana legally in New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and Ohio, increasing pressure on lawmakers concerned about lost tax revenue and continued possession arrests.

The primary dispute is increasingly over who should operate the market and how licenses should be distributed, rather than whether legalization should be considered at all.

New Hampshire remains the only state in New England without legal recreational marijuana, despite the state House repeatedly approving legalization legislation.

In January 2026, representatives voted 208 to 135 to pass House Bill 186, which would have legalized possession and established a regulated commercial market. The Senate later tabled the proposal in a 15 to 9 vote.

New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte also opposes recreational legalization, leaving supporters with barriers in both the executive branch and Senate.

Those obstacles could change quickly. New Hampshire governors serve two-year terms, and every seat in the legislature will be contested in November 2026. A different governor or a less resistant Senate could allow a House-approved proposal to advance in 2027.

New Hampshire does not have a citizen initiative process, so voters cannot place legalization directly on the ballot. The legislature can refer a constitutional amendment to voters, but a 2026 proposal to do so never received a House vote.

Regional isolation, repeated House approval and broad public support nevertheless make New Hampshire one of the strongest contenders if the election produces a more favorable government.

Florida may have the largest demonstrated base of legalization supporters among the remaining prohibition states.

Amendment 3 received nearly 56% of the vote in November 2024, comfortably securing majority support but falling short of Florida’s unusually high 60% requirement for constitutional amendments.

Smart & Safe Florida attempted to qualify a revised measure for the 2026 ballot. The campaign submitted approximately 1.4 million signatures, but state officials determined that only around 793,000 were valid, below the more than 880,000 required.

That defeat makes a 2028 campaign the most realistic route. Organizers would need to restart the signature-gathering process under rules that have become more restrictive, and legalization supporters would again need to convert a majority into a 60% supermajority.

The 2026 election will also bring a new governor and changes to the legislature. A major political realignment could create a legislative path, although lawmakers did not grant a hearing to the state’s recreational marijuana bill in either 2025 or 2026.

Florida is therefore both one of the closest states and one of the most difficult to predict. Voters have shown that a majority supports legalization, but the state’s ballot threshold and petition rules give opponents several opportunities to stop it.

South Dakota is the only state on this list where voters have already approved recreational marijuana.

Amendment A passed with 54.2% support in 2020, but the South Dakota Supreme Court later struck it down after a challenge supported by officials working under then-South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem.

Advocates returned with different legalization measures in 2022 and 2024, but voters rejected both. Those losses indicate that the coalition responsible for the 2020 victory has weakened or that voters were dissatisfied with the later proposals.

South Dakota nevertheless has an established medical marijuana program and a history showing that legalization can win majority support under the right circumstances.

A future initiative would likely need a complete commercial framework, strong funding and a campaign capable of explaining how it differs from the proposals rejected in the previous two elections.

The 2020 result keeps South Dakota in the conversation, but two consecutive defeats make it less likely to act before states where legislative support is already growing.

North Dakota voters have rejected recreational marijuana three times, but the most recent result was close enough to leave another initiative possible.

The 2024 proposal received approximately 47.5% support. It would have legalized possession, home cultivation and commercial sales for adults 21 and older.

North Dakota also voted against legalization in 2018 and 2022. The repeated losses make the state less likely than legislative candidates such as Hawaii or Pennsylvania, but organizers have demonstrated that they can collect enough signatures to reach the ballot.

Another campaign would likely need to address concerns about public consumption, impaired driving, local control and the structure of the commercial market. It would also require substantially more funding and voter outreach than previous efforts.

Because North Dakota allows citizen initiatives, supporters do not need approval from the legislature or governor. That keeps the state in contention for 2028 despite its history of unsuccessful votes.