Kelly McParland: Midterms coming to cast judgment on Trump

Americans will go to the polls in just over three months to decide the mid-term fate of the Trump administration. By any normal measure, Republicans should be dreading the date. It’s usual for incumbent parties to lose ground, but the incessant turmoil of the current regime carries the risk of alienation across all sorts of voter demographics.

That the race remains so unsettled so close to the decision date says something, though what that something might be is as perplexing as so many other aspects of a unique and inscrutable presidency.

A variety of surveys suggest Democrats enjoy an overall lead, though the extent of the gap depends a lot on variables: registered voters versus independents, age groups, ethnic groups, regional preferences and a host of others. Turnout should be key, and there are dark clouds on that front for Republicans: a report by an organization linked to conservative billionaire Charles Koch found a “scary” lack of enthusiasm among the party’s base of support.

Yet no one is betting the farm on the chances Democrats will gain control of the House of Representatives, and the chances of erasing the slim GOP advantage in the Senate are even thinner. The Democrats’ national advantage is offset by a determined Republican gerrymandering drive, reconfiguring electoral districts to ensure almost certain conservative majorities now and into the future. While Democrats have responded with their own attempts to create what are in effect one-party districts, most calculations suggest the incumbents came out marginally ahead.

On a practical basis, Democrats should already be planning their victory parade. The president is unpopular, with a disapproval score nudging 60 per cent. There are disputes within MAGA, big splits over policies and a leakage of one-time Trumpians who have strayed from the camp.

The cost of a gallon of gas averages US$4.09, compared to US$3.09 in January 2024.  That’s an extra US$23 to fill your F-150 pickup; or US$36 for the extended-range tank. The cost of pretty much everything else is up as well, thanks to inflation, for which Americans can thank the high cost of the Trump tariff regime. “Nearly 90 per cent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers,” according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Wall Street Journal has called the ill-judged tariff regime a presidential “obsession.”

“How else to explain his imposition of yet another round of border taxes three months before the November election despite their political unpopularity and economic harm?” it asks. Yet the president has made clear he loves his tariffs and isn’t about to change.

Interest rates in the U.S. are pushing up mortgage rates and the cost of consumer loans. The benchmark Canadian rate is 2.25 per cent, compared to a U.S. Fed target range of 3.5-3.75 per cent. On a $100,000 mortgage that’s about $65 more a month, or $770 a year, a U.S. homeowner would pay compared to a Canadian. Larger mortgages, of course, would cost that much more again. The White House waged a determined effort to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower rates against its better judgment, going so far as to launch a personal mission against its former chairman Jerome Powell, to no effect. Powell retired on his own speed, and replacement Kevin Warsh has so far made no change.

The war on Iran is deeply unpopular, as Americans once against are confronted with images of their sons and daughters being brought home in body bags. There is no sign of the conflict abating; if anything it’s expanding. Houthi tribes have entered the conflict, both Kuwait and Bahrain are reported to have launched attacks on military targets in Iran for the first time, while U.S. support for Israel’s campaigns against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon has set off a virulent debate over Washington’s traditional backing for the Jewish state. Despite repeated pledges of peace deals in the works, the U.S. is pondering a plan to train Lebanese forces to take on a greater role — a tactic that failed miserably in both Vietnam and Afghanistan — while a continued surge of troops, weapons and medical teams has poured into the region.

Apart from contributing to the spike in oil prices, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth put the price of the Iran conflict at US$37.5 billion so far, though Moody’s Analytics calculates the extended cost to consumers and taxpayers at US$132 billion, and Republicans in Congress pushed through a record US$1.15-trillion budget for the Pentagon. Much of the money will come from increased borrowing despite a national debt that has ballooned to US$37.8 trillion, or US$109,000 for every American.

Apart from all the boring figures — which don’t feel so tedious when they’re siphoning ever-increasing amounts from your pocket — there’s the reputational damage to the U.S. of the past two years. Denmark, Greenland, Italy and Canada must be among the least-threatening places on the planet, yet Donald Trump has managed to deeply sour relations with each of them.

Denmark, whose entire population wouldn’t fill all the boroughs in New York City, was prepared to blow up runways in Greenland if the U.S. went so far as to invade. Italy, whose prime minister was once a lonely European cheerleader for Trump, notably ignored him at the NATO summit earlier this month. And the recent launch of the Gordie Howe bridge was a farce worthy of a sketch on late-night U.S. television: American officials were disinvited and the event was held exclusively on the Canadian side. It’s not that Michigan lacks fine folks who would normally be welcome to visit, but how else to respond when you build a bridge, pay the costs, give half of it to the U.S. and are met by insults and a demand for more?

Isolationism has been a continual, and significant, streak through U.S. history. Americans have shown a limited interest in events beyond their own borders, unless the matter is forced on them. But few people enjoy being disliked, and the combination of financial pain, international adventurism and the erosion of America’s stature in so many capitals has become a distinct reality for voters to ponder.

Do Americans think this is good for their country? Have they grasped the extent of the changes taking place? I guess we’ll find out in just a few months’ time.

National Post