Randall Denley: Time for Doug Ford to go ‘elbows up’ against Carney’s high-speed Alto rail

Is Ontario Premier Doug Ford willing to stand up to the prime minister in support of rural Ontarians? We’re about to find out.

Ford and Prime Minister Mark Carney had an informal deal to support each other’s megaprojects. Ford wasn’t to complain about the swath of destruction Carney’s Alto high-speed rail project would cut through rural Ontario. In return, Carney would support Ford’s plan for a huge expansion of the downtown Toronto Billy Bishop airport.

That all blew up Friday when the federal government refused to support the airport plan. The question now is, will Ford finally speak up about the rail plan that will create a fenced, 60-metre-wide corridor that will be like an impenetrable wall right through some of the most beautiful countryside in eastern Ontario? Unlike a conventional rail line, there will be no level crossings. The high-speed rail line blocks rural roads, cut farms in two and lead to the appropriation of homes. A lot of rural Ontarians are understandably upset.

In an unusual departure from party solidarity, some of Ford’s own MPPs are leading the way on opposing Alto. They suggest people being affected aren’t being properly consulted. The Eastern Ontario PC caucus, which includes two cabinet ministers, released a statement Tuesday saying, “Public confidence in major infrastructure projects depends on meaningful consultation. In the case of Alto, too many questions remain unanswered. Too many voices have been ignored.” They cited the concerns of “municipalities, farmers, landowners and residents.”

Ford himself hasn’t commented on his caucus members’ initiative, but his government is sending mixed messages on the value of public consultation.

When the federal government rejected the airport expansion, the Ford government was evidently taken by surprise and had no public response until Tuesday of this week. Then it demonstrated that in politics, there is seldom a problem that can’t be made worse.

Rather than accepting the setback graciously and promising to work with the federal government on a more suitable plan, the Ford government sent out Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria to play sore loser.

Sarkaria criticized the federal government for listening to “a small fringe group in Toronto” that opposed the airport expansion, and vowed to keep pushing for the plan, even though the feds had just said no.

The small fringe group Sarkaria referred to constituted 87,000 people who responded to a federal government online consultation. According to the government, 87 per cent of those respondents were against the airport expansion.

Whatever credibility Sarkaria’s argument had was immediately undermined by his caucus colleagues’ call for public consultation on Alto.

Carney’s decision not to support the airport expansion is out of keeping with his general enthusiasm for megaprojects, but it’s a result of simple political arithmetic.

Federal Liberal MPs hold 23 of 24 seats in Toronto and they have nothing to gain by supporting an unpopular airport expansion plan. There is also a by-election in August in a Liberal-dominant Toronto riding, but the concern is broader than that. Airport expansion opponents are determined, organized and have long memories. If you’re a Toronto Liberal MP, why antagonize them to help Doug Ford?

The same kind of political calculation now needs to be done by Ford. His government isn’t responsible for Alto, but if it doesn’t stand up for people who will suffer from the rail plan, rural PC MPPs will still be blamed by their constituents.

Ford can’t risk alienating his rural base. The numbers are even more compelling for him than the Toronto numbers are for Carney. At least half of the PC caucus represents rural areas. There is already a justified perception that Ford is obsessed with the megacity to the detriment of the rest of the province. Ignoring valid rural concerns about Alto reinforces that assessment.

Ford has been largely silent on the Alto file. The actions of his own caucus members make that strategy difficult to maintain. Will Ford hang his own caucus members out to dry, or back up their concerns?

The premier can’t afford to wait too long. Alto, a federal Crown corporation, is currently assessing which route it prefers. Minimizing damage to the environment and rural areas doesn’t seem to be a foremost priority.

To speed up the process, the federal government has given Alto enhanced expropriation powers. Affected landowners have been left legally powerless.

Their only recourse is through political action. It wouldn’t be hard for Ford to conduct his own public consultation on Alto, just as the Carney government did on the airport plan. Open an online forum. No doubt it would find widespread opposition in the areas most affected.

Having established that it is suddenly super-sensitive to public opinion on big infrastructure projects, it would be politically challenging for the Carney government to ignore valid Alto concerns.

It’s time for Ford to give Carney some of his own medicine. Elbows up, premier.

National Post

randalldenley1@gmail.com