Chris Selley: The Parti Québécois’ referendum tilt-a-whirl

On Wednesday, the Parti Québécois unveiled its slogan for the upcoming provincial election: “Le choix de la confiance,” meaning “the choice of trust” or “confidence” in government. “We will not campaign on the pessimistic themes of uncertainty and fear, but based on policy proposals and a solid team,” leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon told reporters with a straight face.

Leave aside for the moment that the PQ’s concept of Quebec nationalism is inherently pessimistic, marinated in mistrust and grievance. The PQ’s 524-page doorstopper of a manifesto points to the following themes in its table of contents: “the cement of difference: language”; “the French language has no future in Canada”; “the Anselem affair: religion placed on a pedestal of individual rights” (this refers to a landmark Supreme Court case involving Orthodox Jewish Montrealers).

That’s just in chapter one!

The timing of the slogan unveiling was particularly amusing, coming as it did mere hours after St-Pierre Plamondon made official something he has mused about publicly for months: While remaining committed to holding a third sovereignty referendum in the PQ’s first mandate, he announced the campaign would not commence with Donald Trump still occupying the White House.

“Until then, our priority remains clear: Govern Quebec with consistency and restore the confidence of Quebecers,” he said.

In a not universally well-received open letter to Quebec anglophones, published recently in National Post, St-Pierre Plamondon ventured the following: “The real ballot question this upcoming October is who can form a good government for Quebec: a competent government, an honest government, a government prepared to tell the truth about the challenges we face and then hit the ground running to solve them.”

Oh? Because these are the first words in the party manifesto, attributed to St-Pierre Plamondon specifically: “Quebecers have been questioning their political and constitutional future for decades. Feeling constrained within a Canadian federation that offers them neither linguistic nor cultural autonomy, they are searching for a solution that will truly allow them to ensure the preservation of their unique identity in America.”

The contradictions pile up like rush hour traffic on the Champlain Bridge. Quebec must be independent to protect its interests of all kinds … except if a malign influence occupies the White House? At the risk of wanton speculation, I suspect the United States is going to be a quite important market for an independent Quebec. Trump is a uniquely chaotic president — I suspect historians in 1,000 years will still say he was uniquely chaotic — but he didn’t invent protectionism or tariffs. Quebecers only drink so much bourbon. In 2024, according to the provincial liquor concern’s annual report, just 6.8 per cent of the wine sold on its shelves was American, with the vast majority from France, Italy and Spain. They export a lot of electricity to New York and New England … but they also import quite a bit. It’s an interconnected system.

Perhaps anticipating such criticisms, on Thursday St-Pierre Plamondon decided to stress that in his view, an independent Quebec “would be in a position to negotiate (with Washington) by ourselves and hence have our interests put forward and not … sacrificed over other interests.

“Not deciding by yourself when it matters is as dangerous as letting your neighbour decide for you what your budget will be and what cereals, whether it’s cornflakes or corn puffs, you will be eating in the morning. It’s not normal,” St-Pierre Plamondon said, employing a rare breakfast-cereal political analogy. To him, the benefits of sovereignty in this regard are “obvious,” he said.

And yet faced with the greatest menace from the White House Canada and its provinces have seen in anyone’s lifetime, now’s the time to stand down? It raises the question of trust and confidence, surely: Can a party leader who would postpone a referendum pledge because of Donald Trump be trusted to hold that referendum later? Trump leaves office in January 2029. The next Quebec election would be 18 months away.

And Premier St-Pierre Plamondon is going to roll the dice, no matter what the polls say, just because he promised? Even if he can see he is sure to lose? If you assume correlation equals causation, Trump only knocked a few points off support for sovereignty from a Biden-era peak in the high 30s. Thirty-eight per cent is not “winning conditions.”

Most nationalist pundits seem to see “no referendums under Trump” as wise strategy, given the polls — though, speaking of trust, not all of them are happy about Quebecers’ timorousness. “If our ancestors had been so ‘cautious’ (not to say “so fearful”), they would never have crossed the Atlantic,” Richard Martineau fumed in Le Journal de Montréal.

In the unlikely event St-Pierre Plamondon ever pulls the trigger, that’s the sort of remark the No side will want to have clipped and saved. They will have many cautious minds to change, and the PQ’s mixed messages inspire neither trust in the party, nor the party’s trust in Quebecers

National Post cselley@postmedia.com