As she launches her campaign, Quebec’s Fréchette hopes the Carney formula will work twice

OTTAWA — Coalition Avenir Québec Leader Christine Fréchette launched her province’s election campaign by talking about the importance for Quebec to transform its economy in the face of the trade war with the U.S. because their old relationship is over.

If that message sounds oddly familiar, it’s because it is.

That is exactly the message that Prime Minister Mark Carney has been repeating since the 2025 election that saw the Liberal Party of Canada get elected for a fourth mandate against all odds.

On Thursday, a reporter asked Fréchette if she was trying to emulate Carney.

“My name is Christine Fréchette — and it’ll stay that way,” she said with a laugh.

Fréchette took the reins of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in April, succeeding its founder and longtime leader François Legault. The CAQ was expected to be wiped off the electoral map with the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) poised to form a majority government.

But Fréchette took the bull by the horns, multiplying announcements in the province and adopting a new collaborative tone with Ottawa that led to the conclusion of pending deals with Quebec worth billions for infrastructure and major contracts.

Provincial and federal sources consulted for this story said that Fréchette and Carney have a “transactional” relationship which has benefitted both sides — showcasing Fréchette as a dealmaker and Carney as practicing “cooperative federalism.”

But they argue that Ottawa would be wise to take a step back now that the campaign is underway and let the different parties battle it out for the election on October 5.

“They shouldn’t do anything that smells of interfering. Quebec voters will look very unfavourably on the federal government doing anything that hints of picking a winner,” said Jonathan Kalles, a former Quebec advisor to former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

“I think people can figure out which side Mark Carney’s on. At least in terms of who he doesn’t want to win, I don’t think he needs to say that. And I think if he does, it would look bad, and it wouldn’t help whichever other party he, in essence, wants to win.”

Once Fréchette became premier, she travelled to Ottawa to meet with the prime minister — instead of him coming to Montreal or Quebec City — and Carney pointed out there were many years-long pending deals between both levels of government.

“He couldn’t wrap his mind around why we could not agree on good news,” said one senior government source.

Kalles, now senior vice president at Vantage, said the personalities and backgrounds of Trudeau and Legault were so different that their talks weren’t “always constructive.”

“Fréchette comes in and she’s looking to demonstrate that she can get concrete things done. And I think Mark Carney understood that, so he was in a deal mode,” Kalles said.

The first major announcement came in June when Quebec and Ottawa signed five infrastructure agreements worth nearly $10 billion which would pave the way for major investments in public transit, health care, housing and education over the next decade.

Earlier in August, the federal government also helped Quebec broker a new energy framework with Newfoundland and Labrador that the PQ promised it would review once in power and ask for compensation for Quebec’s loss of Labrador nearly a century ago.

And only three days before the start of the campaign, Carney was by Fréchette’s side in Lévis, Quebec, to announce that the federal government will invest $11 billion for Davie Shipyard to build six new icebreakers for the Canadian Coast Guard.

The multiple announcements between both leaders so close to the election did not go unnoticed by reporters, who asked Fréchette if Carney is becoming her “best friend” for the upcoming campaign and Carney if he would like Fréchette to win the election.

Carney took the podium first to say it is his job to work with premiers, unions, business leaders and all Canadians in a spirit of collaboration.

“That’s my choice,” he said in French. “It’s the only choice and I am happy that Madame Fréchette has the same attitude in terms of working in collaboration to create good jobs and bright futures for people.”

“When Madame Fréchette became premier, she said, ‘Let’s get to work.’ These are good words for me,” he added.

In a similar fashion, Fréchette said it is her job to work with anyone who wants to advance Quebec’s interests.

After the announcement, Carney crossed the St. Lawrence River to meet with the leader of the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) Charles Milliard, for a brief lunch.

It was the first meeting between the two men and sources said they spoke about their vision of how to respond to the trade war. After lunch, Carney took the initiative to go around the patio, with Milliard, to shake hands with customers.

A provincial source said the Liberal Party of Canada has more natural links with the QLP than the CAQ. For instance, two of Carney’s top advisors — chief of staff Marc-André Blanchard and deputy chief of staff Andrée-Lynne Hallé — were involved with the provincial Liberals years back.

Kalles said he didn’t see Carney’s meeting with Milliard as an endorsement.

“I don’t think we know who’s going to win this election, so I think it’s trying to build a relationship — especially in the current circumstances of an economic crisis and the tariff crisis — and at least break the ice with any of the potential winners.”

No such meetings were in the works for PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon or other provincial leaders before the start of the campaign, Carney’s office said.

And Carney will not be making partisan announcements with any of the contenders during the Quebec election either.

If the PQ were to form government in October, a senior government source said the prime minister would treat it no differently than other provinces.

For now, Fréchette is the one who seems to be benefitting from the current trade war with the U.S. while St-Pierre Plamondon and Milliard are losing ground.

A Synopsis-La Presse poll released Friday showed that the CAQ has soared to 27 per cent of voting intentions in Quebec among decided voters, a statistical tie with the PQ which now stands at 28 per cent. The QLP is in third place at 20 per cent.

In this scenario, the PQ would still form a minority government, but any movement upwards for the CAQ could compromise this scenario for the separatist party.

Jonathan Valois, a former CAQ chief of staff and PQ member of the National Assembly, said the polling shows that Quebecers are striving for more stability amid the trade war, and that as a result, all provincial parties will be forced to readjust their messaging.

“The campaign is going to be a long one, but it certainly sends very clear signals to political parties regarding the mood of the electorate concerning this American threat,” he said.

Valois said that while Fréchette has benefitted from her close proximity to Carney — who remains widely popular in Quebec — she also struck the right tone in demanding more information on the tentative Canada-U.S. deal before talks collapsed last week.

Earlier this week, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Carney walking away from a trade agreement and blaming it in part on the lack of protections for the French language because he was trying to prevent the PQ from winning in Quebec.

Valois said that while details around this issue are still fuzzy, Carney defending the protection of the French language from the U.S. is a “gift from heaven” for the CAQ.

“This makes things a bit easier for Christine Fréchette, who wanted to show that she is aligned with Mark Carney but also a staunch defender of Quebec’s distinct character.”

“Right now, the stars are aligned for her.”

National Post calevesque@postmedia.com