All eyes are on Chicoutimi—Le Fjord as Liberals try to add another seat in byelection

OTTAWA — Voters in three federal ridings are heading to the polls today, giving Prime Minister Mark Carney a chance to add another seat to his total before the House of Commons returns in September.

The Liberals are the heavy favourites in the two byelection votes in Toronto and Vancouver, but the race in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord — a riding two hours north of Quebec City — is shaping up to be a fierce battle between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois.

The seat was left vacant after Conservative MP Richard Martel was appointed to the Senate by Prime Minister Mark Carney earlier this summer.

In the 2025 federal election, only three points separated first place from third place in the riding, with Martel winning his fourth mandate with a razor-thin majority of 34.1 per cent of the vote. The Bloc Québécois ended second with 31.2 per cent, while the Liberals ended third with 31.1 per cent of the vote.

A recent poll from Segma Recherche found that Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil, former head of the province’s dairy lobby, is favoured by 40 per cent of voters, while the Bloc’s Caroline Dubé, a former political staffer, is close behind with 38 per cent.

The close gap between both parties falls within the poll’s margin of error, which is around 5 per cent.

Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault, a lawyer by profession, is in third place with 17 per cent according to the poll.

The Chicoutimi—Le Fjord seat, ultimately, will go to whichever party gets out most of its vote. That could prove difficult, as voters’ attention is divided between the trade war with the U.S., the back-to-school period and the Quebec election campaign underway.

The confusion was such that Elections Canada had to step in to remind voters that Monday’s federal byelection is separate from the provincial election set to happen on Oct. 5.

Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet has spent nearly two weeks campaigning with his candidate in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord. In comparison, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Carney have each visited the riding once ahead of the byelection.

“We want this; we want to win. And we’re fairly confident,” said a Bloc source, speaking on background to share their impressions more freely while the voting was underway.

The source anticipated that the sovereigntist party would have a late evening ahead of them, as results are expected to be close with the Liberals.

A Liberal source acknowledged that the Bloc ran a good campaign, but that the ongoing trade war with the U.S. might ultimately tip the scales in the government’s favour.

“Personally, I really sensed a shift in tone among the public,” said the Liberal source.

Martel’s move to the Senate, while not a floor-crossing per se, has left a sour taste in the mouths of some supporters. It remains to be seen if the Conservatives will see their numbers collapse, as it was the case in the byelection in Terrebonne which caused the Liberals win the seat.

In any case, Liberals are almost assured to win back two of their safe seats on Monday.

The byelection in the Toronto riding of Beaches—East York was called after former Liberal minister Nathaniel Erskine-Smith resigned as MP earlier this summer One of his former political staffers, Tanveer Shahnawaz, is vying to succeed in his old boss’ seat.

The race in the B.C. riding of North Vancouver—Capilano will replace Jonathan Wilkinson, another former minister who is now Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. Carney’s former deputy chief of staff, Braeden Caley, is running for his seat.

Polls in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and Beaches—East York close at 9:30 p.m. while polls in North Vancouver—Capilano close at 10:00 p.m. in the Eastern time zone.

At least five more byelections are expected to be called in the coming months, including three in Quebec, one in Ontario and one in Saskatchewan.

National Post calevesque@postmedia.com