Republicans split on Canada as Trump’s trade war escalates: polls

Americans are becoming increasingly divided on their feelings about their northern neighbours and the freshly stoked trade war, according to new polls released this week.

Polling conducted by YouGov for The Economist found that 38 per cent of Republican voters “now view Canada as unfriendly or an enemy, by far the highest level in the past decade” and up from 22 per cent in February polling. Only 12 per cent of Republicans felt the same way in April 2024, before U.S. President Donald Trump began his second term.

Meanwhile, only eight per cent of self-identified Democrats viewed Canada in the same light, up from three per cent this February.

Overall, a majority of Americans (net 64 per cent) describe Canada as either an ally (39 per cent) or friendly (25 per cent). Less than a quarter (net 22 per cent) now see Canada as unfriendly (19 per cent) or an enemy (three per cent) — “a new high since 2016.”

YouGov also polled respondents about Trump’s renaming of Lake Ontario to Lake America in the U.S., finding most citizens (68 per cent) strongly or somewhat disapproved of the move.

The 17 per cent who strongly or somewhat approved were predominantly Republicans, but Republicans more broadly were divided, with 41 per cent disapproving and 37 per cent endorsing it.

“The exception is MAGA Republicans: 47 per cent approve of the renaming and 29 per cent disapprove,” YouGov wrote, “while non-MAGA Republicans disapprove by 67 per cent to 22 per cent.”

A similar pattern emerged on a question regarding Canada’s trade treatment of the U.S.

Asked whether they felt Canada was treating the U.S. unfairly in trade, 45 per cent said no, 28 per cent said yes and the remaining 27 per cent were unsure. Republicans (49 per cent) were more likely than Democrats (11 per cent) to say Canada was being unfair.

But fewer Republicans who identified as non-MAGA (33 per cent) judged Canada to be unfair, compared to 58 per cent of MAGA Republicans.

Polling by Ipsos also explored Americans’ feelings on the new 50 per cent tariffs enacted by the Trump administration last month, finding more Republicans support (44 per cent) than oppose (33 per cent) the sanctions, with 22 per cent unsure.

Republicans were similarly split on who was most responsible for the trade hostilities — Canada (31 per cent), the U.S. (19 per cent) or both equally (30 per cent). A fifth of respondents (20 per cent) were unsure.

And when it comes to ending the trade dispute, the majority of respondents (68 per cent) said the U.S. should be willing to “make tradeoffs with Canada even if it means it doesn’t get most of what it wants.” Only a quarter of respondents (25 per cent) want team Trump to “take a tough stance with Canada and insist on getting most of what it wants.”

Across political lines, while Democrat voters are overwhelmingly (88 per cent) in favour of concessions that would leave the U.S. short of its desires, Republicans were largely split on the matter — 47 per cent on the side of trade-offs and 50 per cent in support of holding firm.

Ipsos also asked about the contentious Lake Ontario-Lake America issue, garnering results similar to Leger’s.

More Republicans oppose (43 per cent) than support (33 per cent) the change, but 24 per cent remain unsure. Across the board, 63 per cent of Americans are against Trump’s executive order.

A third poll, conducted by Abacus Data, explored “the political consequences of the trade war in the five states most likely to determine Senate control” following the upcoming U.S. midterm elections — Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Maine and South Carolina, where 500 people were polled, respectively.

It found that those “voters have not turned on Canada.”

Positive impressions of Canada are highest in Maine (81 per cent), “where cross-border ties are part of daily life,” but even the low water mark was still high at 66 per cent in Ohio.

Their “feelings toward the Canadian people are warmer still,” landing between a low of 74 per cent in South Carolina to 87 per cent in Michigan and 88 per cent in Maine.

“Americans are drawing a line between a government dispute and a neighbouring people they continue to like,” Abacus wrote. “For Canadian readers, the audience on the other side of the border is not hostile, it is more conflicted about its own government’s policy.”

Data also indicated that Trump’s own approval rating in every state is higher than approval of how he’s handled trade with Canada — even in the red state of South Carolina, where his approval reaches 46 per cent.

“When one of the president’s signature economic initiatives polls behind the president himself in his strongest state, the initiative is not building his coalition. It is borrowing from it,” the pollster wrote.

Most respondents also predicted the tariffs will be “mostly bad” and hurt the American economy, workers, farmers, their own states and their own households.

“Across 25 combinations of measure and state, ‘mostly bad’ beats ‘mostly good’ every single time, usually by wide margins,” Abacus said.

And given the chance to have the Canada-U.S. relationship return to what it was before Trump, three times as many respondents said they would prefer that to the present fracturing.

“The current state of relations with Canada is not an equilibrium Americans in these states have accepted,” they wrote. “It is a condition most of them want reversed.”

South Carolinans were the only ones on side with the current White House strategy, and only by two points (33 to 35 per cent), “a policy defended likely out of loyalty and a weaker bond with Canada.”

The overall sample of YouGov’s poll, conducted among 1,592 U.S. citizens between Aug. 28-31, has a margin of error of roughly 3.5 per cent, as did Ipsos’ poll of 1,023 people, conducted Aug. 28-30.

Abacus’s survey of 2,500 voters was conducted Aug. 26-28. The overall sample carries a margin of error of 4.4 per cent, while the margin for a probability sample of 500 is two per cent.