Marc-Olivier Fortin: The once mighty Quebec Liberals are disintegrating

In this election, the Liberal Party of Quebec (LPQ) is a shadow of the powerhouse it once was, a party that held government for about 86 years since Confederation, far exceeding any of its rivals.

Charles Milliard, a former pharmacist, businessman and head of the Quebec Chambers of Commerce Federation, became leader in February 2026, after the previous leader Pablo Rodriguez’s tenure was cut short amid corruption allegations. Following Milliard’s leadership victory, the party’s poll numbers peaked in mid-April when the Liberals tied the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 32 per cent on average. Two weeks into the current campaign, Milliard’s numbers keep decreasing, dipping to lows of 21 per cent as of Sept. 8. To make matters worse for the party, the last few polls have the Liberals in fourth place among francophones, at around 10 per cent. The party leads nowhere except in the Montreal area, and even there the race has tightened.

I had the chance to meet Milliard a while back. While I do believe he is there for the right reasons, it is unfortunate that he has so far failed to transform his accomplished career into clear leadership.

Surprisingly, Quebec Liberals are failing to resonate in an environment where the PQ is making sovereignty a key issue of this campaign. Historically, the Liberals strive in such circumstances, rallying federalists around their banner. Instead, federalists are now being tempted to vote for Christine Fréchette, the premier and leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec, who uses the Trump tariff threat to rally federalists, bleeding away the last remaining solid electorate the Liberals had left other than the anglophone vote.

The fundamental problem with Milliard is that when you stand for everything, you stand for nothing. He has so far demonstrated himself to be sitting on the fence on many issues. He has planted his flag in no man’s land: too timid for the fiscal conservatives, too much of a lightweight to play the role of Captain Canada, and utterly invisible to everyone in between.

Take for example his stance on Bill 96, which greatly expanded laws mandating the use of French, including into the private sector. Shortly after taking the leadership, Milliard said he would keep using the notwithstanding clause for the bill to ensure it withstands any future Charter challenges. His anglophone caucus revolted and he had to reverse his stance the very next day, saying he was open to simply amending the bill. His indecisiveness extends to the construction of a third link, or highway, between Quebec City and Levis directly across the St. Lawrence. He says he is supportive of it but won’t commit to a specific option, stating only that he would keep studying the project … the same project which had been revived by his own party under former Liberal premier Philippe Couillard, back in 2017.

His economic platform, usually a strength for the Liberals, suffers from the same uninspired plague: a provincial business tax cut from 11.5 per cent to 10 per cent that barely differs from what the CAQ already delivered and can’t compete with the 59 per cent cut promised by the Conservative Party of Quebec (CPQ). Milliard opted to work within the CAQ framework instead of breaking with it.

In politics, when you can’t differentiate yourself from the pack, indifference is all that remains. And it is no coincidence that this indifference, this political apathy, is reflected in how the electorate feels towards the Liberals at the moment. In fact, a recent Pallas poll shows that the “neutral opinion” of Charles Milliard is on the rise during this campaign unlike all of his competitors.

Between the federalist vote leaving to the CAQ, and fiscally focused voters splitting between the CAQ and the Conservatives, the Liberals are caught in a pincer movement, fighting a war on multiple fronts.

This situation brings back memories of Kim Campbell’s 1993 Progressive Conservative party, squeezed between the newly formed Reform party of fiscal conservatives and a Bloc Québécois born from Quebec nationalists. Trying to balance nothing and everything, Campbell ended up with only two seats.

Going into the election, pundits expected the Liberals to win at least 40 seats, representing a third of the National Assembly. What was once seen as the floor, is quickly becoming the ceiling.

Political campaigns run on a war chest that only shrinks: time, money and volunteers. Milliard, who is himself running in the Eastern Township riding of Orford, is in danger of losing his own riding. The Liberals nonetheless continue to barnstorm the whole province, spreading itself thin, preaching its message to increasingly deaf ears while squandering precious resources.

Off the record, a well-sourced campaign insider speaks of the inexperienced team, outdated voter-ID and get-out-the-vote tools, and operators who haven’t run a campaign in over a decade that are largely to blame for the strategy or lack of one. The playbook should have been simple: reconquer historical strongholds, win 40 seats and hold fast as the government in waiting. For a leader barely a year into the job, that would have been the perfect springboard back to power.

Earlier this week, Milliard admitted he wants to see changes in his communication strategy. Not long after, surrounded by Quebec flags, he recorded a quick video promising to bring an economic plan to address tariffs, focused on improving productivity. Whether it will have an effect or not, time will tell, but it is clear that Milliard knows something is not working.

The Liberals, so accustomed to winning, now seem to have forgotten how to do so. The only hope Milliard has left is to surprise electors during the leaders debate on Sept. 15, which he can still certainly do. Milliard is sharp. But being sharp is not enough. He needs to make voters feel something. If he shows some fight, some grit, and makes himself look like a premier-in-waiting, the race could shift.

If not, the party risks surrendering its historical dominance to the CAQ for the foreseeable future, and perhaps permanently.

Marc-Olivier Fortin is the former national Vice-President of the Conservative Party of Canada (2016-2018) and campaign manager for the CPC in Quebec (2021). He is now a regular commentator at RDI and on COGECO radio and works for Transfert, a firm specialized in social acceptability in mining, energy and heavy industry sectors.