Survey: Marijuana Investors Put 65% Odds on Federal Rescheduling Within Six Months, 47% More Bullish Than Six Months Ago

Marijuana investors remain broadly optimistic about federal rescheduling despite continued uncertainty surrounding the process, with a new survey finding investors assigned a 65% probability to full Schedule III rescheduling occurring within the next six months.

The findings come from ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ latest Cannabis Investor Sentiment Survey, conducted from September 21 through September 29.

Investors were even slightly more confident that major U.S. stock exchanges will begin allowing broader marijuana company listings, assigning that development a 67% probability over the near term. That marked the first time in the survey’s history that the probability of broader exchange uplistings exceeded 50%.

ATB attributed the increased confidence partly to the recent uplistings of Trulieve and Glass House Brands, which the firm said strengthened investor expectations that full rescheduling could open major U.S. exchanges to additional marijuana companies.

Respondents also assigned a 58% probability to a federal ban on intoxicating hemp products taking effect.

The survey was completed before a September 29 stay order from the chief administrative law judge overseeing the federal rescheduling proceedings, which effectively paused the process for at least two weeks. ATB said the 65% rescheduling probability would likely be somewhat lower if investors were surveyed today.

Despite that development, ATB said it does not believe the delay fundamentally changes expectations that rescheduling will eventually occur. The firm has shifted its base-case timeline to the first quarter of 2027.

Rescheduling overwhelmingly remained the policy change investors said would make them more willing to put additional money into U.S. multistate marijuana operators. About 81.3% ranked Schedule III rescheduling among their top two factors for increasing investment, compared with 37.5% for uplistings to major exchanges.

A federal intoxicating hemp ban and a decision by the Internal Revenue Service not to pursue uncertain Section 280E tax liabilities were each selected by 25% of respondents.

Nearly half of respondents, 47.1%, said they were more bullish on U.S. multistate marijuana operators than six months earlier, while 52.9% said their outlook was unchanged. No respondents said they had become more bearish.

That improvement in sentiment has not translated into equally large increases in investment exposure. Just 29.4% reported increasing their net exposure to U.S. marijuana companies during the previous six months, while 64.7% reported no change and 5.9% decreased their exposure.

Investors also identified failure to complete rescheduling as the biggest near-term risk facing multistate operators. About 64.7% ranked rescheduling not happening among their top two risks, followed by continued price and margin compression at 58.8% and the IRS pursuing Section 280E liabilities at 29.4%.

Expectations for marijuana stocks remain substantial if rescheduling is completed. About 46.7% of respondents said they believe the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF, commonly known by its ticker MSOS, could reach $10 or higher following Schedule III rescheduling.

The survey included 17 respondents. About 94% were involved with U.S. multistate operators, 58.8% described their marijuana investment strategy as long-only and 70.6% were general investment funds rather than marijuana-focused funds.

Green Thumb Industries was the most frequently identified consensus long position among U.S. marijuana companies, followed by Trulieve.